Research
This section presents three policy-planning documents on AI labor-market tail risk. Start with the executive abstract if you want the shortest version. Read the comparison memo if you want historical context. Read the full report if you want the stress test design and detailed scenario outputs.
At a glance
- In the extreme plausible case, the support population reaches 31.8 million by 2035 and 40.1 million by 2040.
- Official unemployment rises to 10.1 percent in 2035, peaks at 10.6 percent in 2037, and remains elevated through the horizon.
- Labor-force participation falls to 55.2 percent by 2035 and 51.4 percent by 2040, indicating weak reabsorption.
- By 2035, modeled wage levels in remaining human-employable work are about 21 percent below the reference path in lower-barrier tasks, 15 percent below in mid-barrier tasks, and 6 percent below in higher-barrier tasks.
Reading path
Executive Abstract
The shortest version. Use this if you want the bottom line, key metrics, and policy takeaway in a few minutes.
Historical Comparison Memo
Benchmarks the extreme plausible AI case against 1982, the Great Recession, and the pandemic. Best for readers who want to understand why this is framed as structurally different from a normal recession.
Tail Risk Report
Full stress test. Includes scenario assumptions, support-population composition, wage compression, and year-by-year planning metrics through 2040.